{"F": {"ts_code": "600930.SH", "name": "华电新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20250716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.91, "pe_ttm": 33.5438, "pb": 1.4705, "dv_ttm": 1.5345, "total_mv": 16310285.7087, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [51.8, 55.4, 54.3, 52.0, 46.1, 39.6], "rev_series": [null, null, 246.7, 295.8, 339.7, 389.8], "np_series": [null, null, 85.2, 96.2, 88.3, 72.6], "roe_series": [11.1, 15.2, 12.9, 12.2, 9.3, 6.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 406.5, "np_ttm": 48.6, "ocf_ttm": 334.6, "fcf_ttm": -442.8, "fcf_yield": -27.1, "ocf_yield": 20.5, "gm_median": 52.0, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": 34.3, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 65.2, "fix_assets": 3612.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.15, "capex_dep": 4.52, "interest_debt": 3371.5, "debt_ebitda": 10.7, "debt_ratio": 71.3, "debt_mv": 206.7, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 16.5, "np_cagr3": -5.2, "rev_yoy": 8.4, "np_yoy": -38.5, "np_vol": 33.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 25.1, "fwd_pe2": 23.6, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 4.18, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["电力销售", 33.0], ["电力", 33.0], ["其他主营业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -37.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.7, "ret_60": -30.9, "ret_120": -41.9, "ret_250": -41.3, "mdd_250": -47.4, "vol_250": 29.1, "pos_52w": 52.9}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 67, "hard": 100, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.5 倍、股息率 1.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 52.0%、固定资产占比 65%、有息负债/EBITDA 10.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 65%、毛利率 52.0% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -27.1%(经营现金流/市值 20.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.0%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 65%,资本开支/折旧 4.52 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.5 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -41%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -31% / -42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "华电新能:PE 比行业中位高 5.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 29.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}