{"F": {"ts_code": "600925.SH", "name": "苏能股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "煤炭", "sw2": "煤炭开采", "sw3": "动力煤", "ind": "煤炭开采", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20230329", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.2, "pe_ttm": 156.1278, "pb": 1.8829, "dv_ttm": 0.4762, "total_mv": 2893333.338, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.2, 39.8, 40.3, 43.0, 32.4, 26.6], "rev_series": [100.4, 116.8, 151.4, 120.3, 141.8, 126.7], "np_series": [18.1, 20.0, 27.2, 24.0, 13.9, 2.3], "roe_series": [20.5, 25.6, 28.4, 17.9, 8.7, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 143.3, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 22.3, "fcf_ttm": -5.9, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 7.7, "gm_median": 39.8, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 7.2, "npm_median": 18.4, "roe_median": 17.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 52.9, "fix_assets": 223.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.88, "capex_dep": 1.76, "interest_debt": 126.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 57.9, "debt_mv": 43.8, "payout": 61.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.8, "np_cagr3": -56.4, "rev_yoy": 29.8, "np_yoy": -42.9, "np_vol": 41.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.4, "ret_prev2_year": 0.0, "ret_ytd": -7.1, "ret_pivot": -13.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -14.3, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -19.8, "vol_250": 18.1, "pos_52w": 84.0}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 70, "hard": 85, "bondness": 56}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 223 亿,占总资产 53%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:动力煤 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -2.0%,股息率 0.5%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 97%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 53%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.8%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 1.76 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 156.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 18%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -3% / -14%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「煤炭开采」26 家中位:PE 25.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 34.5% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 51%。", "苏能股份:PE 比行业中位高 130.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点。"]}}