{"F": {"ts_code": "600918.SH", "name": "中泰证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20200603", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.67, "pe_ttm": 18.1335, "pb": 0.9978, "dv_ttm": 0.8818, "total_mv": 4489699.347, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [103.5, 131.5, 93.2, 127.6, 108.9, 113.9], "np_series": [25.3, 32.0, 5.9, 18.0, 9.4, 14.3], "roe_series": [7.5, 9.3, 1.6, 4.6, 2.3, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 136.7, "np_ttm": 24.8, "ocf_ttm": 129.8, "fcf_ttm": 125.5, "fcf_yield": 27.9, "ocf_yield": 28.9, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 14.7, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.6, "fix_assets": 48.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 0.9, "capex_dep": 1.52, "interest_debt": 511.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 82.2, "debt_mv": 114.0, "payout": 27.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.9, "np_cagr3": 34.5, "rev_yoy": 46.3, "np_yoy": 146.4, "np_vol": 99.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 19.2, "fwd_pe2": 18.3, "fwd_g1": -6.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 19.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入", 13.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：证券经纪业务净收入：证券经纪", 10.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：证券经纪业务净收入：证券经纪", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.7, "ret_prev2_year": -3.7, "ret_ytd": -12.1, "ret_pivot": 3.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": 10.3, "ret_120": -8.4, "ret_250": -22.4, "mdd_250": -30.2, "vol_250": 21.3, "pos_52w": 78.4}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 31}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["中泰证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 3.1%,PB 1.00倍,股息率 0.9%,分红率 28%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 5.5%(1/PE)与股息率 0.9% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.1 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 10% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "中泰证券:PE 比行业中位高 2.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点。"]}}