{"F": {"ts_code": "600916.SH", "name": "中国黄金", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "饰品", "sw3": "钟表珠宝", "ind": "饰品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.07, "pe_ttm": 57.4346, "pb": 1.8927, "dv_ttm": 1.834, "total_mv": 1355760.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.4, 3.1, 3.9, 4.1, 4.3, 3.3], "rev_series": [337.9, 507.6, 471.2, 563.6, 604.6, 698.2], "np_series": [5.0, 7.9, 7.7, 9.7, 8.2, 2.8], "roe_series": [10.1, 13.5, 11.4, 13.6, 11.0, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 636.2, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": -9.4, "fcf_ttm": -9.8, "fcf_yield": -7.2, "ocf_yield": -6.9, "gm_median": 3.9, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 11.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.7, "fix_assets": 0.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.89, "capex_dep": 5.02, "interest_debt": 36.4, "debt_ebitda": 13.0, "debt_ratio": 38.3, "debt_mv": 26.8, "payout": 77.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": -28.9, "rev_yoy": -19.9, "np_yoy": -12.4, "np_vol": 42.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["黄金产品", 49.0], ["综合服务费", 1.0], ["管理服务费", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.5, "ret_prev2_year": -9.0, "ret_ytd": 0.8, "ret_pivot": 9.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": 10.2, "ret_120": -17.3, "ret_250": -0.0, "mdd_250": -52.9, "vol_250": 41.7, "pos_52w": 55.5}, "S": {"duration": 76, "pricing": 40, "hard": 1, "bondness": 59}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 57.4 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%、固定资产占比 1%、有息负债/EBITDA 13.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -7.2%(经营现金流/市值 -6.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.9%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 5.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 57.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 10% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饰品」15 家中位:PE 57.4 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.0% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 59%。", "中国黄金:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点。"]}}