{"F": {"ts_code": "600905.SH", "name": "三峡能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "风力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20210610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.68, "pe_ttm": 94.042, "pb": 1.1848, "dv_ttm": 1.1141, "total_mv": 10520255.2368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.7, 58.4, 58.4, 55.1, 52.6, 41.8], "rev_series": [113.1, 154.8, 238.1, 264.9, 297.2, 284.0], "np_series": [36.1, 56.4, 71.6, 71.8, 61.1, 37.1], "roe_series": [9.0, 10.2, 9.8, 9.0, 7.2, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 270.2, "np_ttm": 11.2, "ocf_ttm": 214.5, "fcf_ttm": -66.1, "fcf_yield": -6.3, "ocf_yield": 20.4, "gm_median": 55.1, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 0.7, "npm_median": 31.2, "roe_median": 9.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 69.1, "fix_assets": 2732.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.18, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 2086.6, "debt_ebitda": 9.8, "debt_ratio": 72.5, "debt_mv": 198.3, "payout": 31.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": -19.6, "rev_yoy": -9.4, "np_yoy": -68.0, "np_vol": 31.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 27.1, "fwd_pe2": 24.2, "fwd_g1": 248.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 2.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["风力发电", 28.0], ["太阳能发电", 13.0], ["光伏发电业务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.0, "ret_prev2_year": 1.9, "ret_ytd": -9.1, "ret_pivot": -7.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.4, "ret_60": -10.7, "ret_120": -16.2, "ret_250": -14.0, "mdd_250": -19.5, "vol_250": 15.7, "pos_52w": 81.4}, "S": {"duration": 90, "pricing": 67, "hard": 100, "bondness": 47}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 94.0 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 55.1%、固定资产占比 69%、有息负债/EBITDA 9.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 69%、毛利率 55.1% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.3%(经营现金流/市值 20.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 69%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 94.0 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 16%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -11% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "三峡能源:PE 比行业中位高 66.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 32.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点。"]}}