{"F": {"ts_code": "600903.SH", "name": "贵州燃气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.75, "pe_ttm": 433.3293, "pb": 2.5236, "dv_ttm": 0.4198, "total_mv": 785690.0438, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.6, 17.0, 12.6, 15.4, 14.3, 14.2], "rev_series": [42.4, 50.9, 61.6, 61.0, 66.8, 66.4], "np_series": [2.1, 1.8, 0.3, 0.8, 0.6, 0.5], "roe_series": [7.4, 6.0, 0.9, 2.6, 2.0, 1.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 7.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 9.2, "gm_median": 14.3, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -7.0, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.0, "fix_assets": 72.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 2.41, "capex_dep": 2.12, "interest_debt": 58.0, "debt_ebitda": 8.0, "debt_ratio": 63.3, "debt_mv": 73.9, "payout": 114.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": 22.7, "rev_yoy": -10.7, "np_yoy": -30.6, "np_vol": 100.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["天然气销售和安装", 33.0], ["天然气销售及入户安装业务", 33.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -14.7, "ret_prev2_year": -0.7, "ret_ytd": 2.3, "ret_pivot": 8.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.0, "ret_60": -26.4, "ret_120": -1.4, "ret_250": -5.5, "mdd_250": -44.6, "vol_250": 41.9, "pos_52w": 64.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 99, "bondness": 70}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 433.3 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%、固定资产占比 62%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 9.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 14.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 2.12 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 433.3 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -6%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -26% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "贵州燃气:PE 比行业中位高 411.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.4个百分点。"]}}