{"F": {"ts_code": "600900.SH", "name": "长江电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "水力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20031118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.42, "pe_ttm": 19.2084, "pb": 3.2174, "dv_ttm": 3.5186, "total_mv": 69538674.7034, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.4, 62.1, 57.3, 57.8, 59.1, 61.7], "rev_series": [577.8, 556.5, 520.6, 781.1, 844.9, 862.4], "np_series": [263.0, 262.7, 213.1, 272.4, 325.0, 345.0], "roe_series": [16.4, 14.9, 11.6, 14.1, 15.8, 16.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 874.7, "np_ttm": 362.0, "ocf_ttm": 607.0, "fcf_ttm": 439.9, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 8.7, "gm_median": 59.1, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -6.1, "npm_median": 40.5, "roe_median": 14.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.8, "fix_assets": 4255.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 3.22, "capex_dep": 0.89, "interest_debt": 2833.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 59.4, "debt_mv": 40.7, "payout": 71.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.3, "np_cagr3": 17.4, "rev_yoy": 3.4, "np_yoy": 13.0, "np_vol": 13.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 18, "fwd_pe": 19.4, "fwd_pe2": 18.8, "fwd_g1": -1.0, "fwd_g2": 3.0, "peg": 6.47, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.1, "ret_prev2_year": 34.2, "ret_ytd": 8.5, "ret_pivot": 8.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.4, "ret_60": 4.9, "ret_120": 6.7, "ret_250": 3.9, "mdd_250": -10.8, "vol_250": 13.8, "pos_52w": 96.4}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 67, "hard": 100, "bondness": 60}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 13个百分点,营收 3 年复合 18.3%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 71%、股息率 3.5%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 2834 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍,资产负债率 59%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.5% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 19.2 倍 倒过来就是 5.2% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 76%、毛利率 59.1% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.1%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 76%,资本开支/折旧 0.89 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.2 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -11%,年化波动 14%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 5% / 7%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;符合。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "长江电力:PE 比行业中位低 8.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 36.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点。"]}}