{"F": {"ts_code": "600895.SH", "name": "张江高科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "房地产", "sw2": "房地产开发", "sw3": "产业地产", "ind": "房地产开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960422", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.82, "pe_ttm": 48.798, "pb": 3.3751, "dv_ttm": 0.6707, "total_mv": 4618192.3872, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.1, 69.3, 62.1, 58.0, 56.8, 48.7], "rev_series": [7.8, 21.0, 19.1, 20.3, 19.8, 41.8], "np_series": [18.2, 7.4, 8.2, 9.5, 9.8, 9.9], "roe_series": [18.1, 6.8, 7.3, 7.8, 7.2, 6.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.3, "np_ttm": 9.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.1, "fcf_ttm": -4.0, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 58.0, "gm_std": 6.7, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 7.0, "npm_median": 41.3, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.7, "capex_dep": 59.23, "interest_debt": 283.0, "debt_ebitda": 15.0, "debt_ratio": 66.3, "debt_mv": 61.3, "payout": 31.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 29.9, "np_cagr3": 6.2, "rev_yoy": 8.6, "np_yoy": -10.8, "np_vol": 27.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 45.9, "fwd_pe2": 41.4, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 4.17, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["房产分部", 50.0], ["产业空间载体-租赁", 50.0], ["投资分部", -0.0], ["投资", -0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 65.5, "ret_prev2_year": 41.4, "ret_ytd": -31.9, "ret_pivot": 51.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.3, "ret_60": -7.8, "ret_120": -19.6, "ret_250": -16.3, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 54.5}, "S": {"duration": 70, "pricing": 71, "hard": 1, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 48.8 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 58.0%、固定资产占比 0%、有息负债/EBITDA 15.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.0%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.0%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 59.23 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 48.8 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -8% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「房地产开发」83 家中位:PE 26.0 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 21.1% / 固定资产占比 2% / 分红率 36%。", "张江高科:PE 比行业中位高 22.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 36.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}