{"F": {"ts_code": "600893.SH", "name": "航发动力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航空装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航空装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航空装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960408", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.04, "pe_ttm": 154.9576, "pb": 2.6571, "dv_ttm": 0.1798, "total_mv": 10673039.5772, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 12.5, 10.8, 11.1, 10.1, 9.1], "rev_series": [286.3, 341.0, 371.0, 437.3, 478.8, 463.3], "np_series": [11.5, 11.9, 12.7, 14.2, 8.6, 6.3], "roe_series": [3.5, 3.2, 3.3, 3.7, 2.2, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 529.9, "np_ttm": 6.9, "ocf_ttm": -27.1, "fcf_ttm": -64.9, "fcf_yield": -6.1, "ocf_yield": -2.5, "gm_median": 10.8, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 3.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.5, "fix_assets": 259.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.66, "capex_dep": 1.75, "interest_debt": 341.2, "debt_ebitda": 8.6, "debt_ratio": 61.0, "debt_mv": 32.0, "payout": 30.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.7, "np_cagr3": -20.6, "rev_yoy": 47.2, "np_yoy": 59.3, "np_vol": 20.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 175.7, "fwd_pe2": 134.4, "fwd_g1": -12.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 5.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["航空发动机及衍生产品", 47.0], ["外贸出口转包", 2.0], ["非航空产品及其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.2, "ret_prev2_year": 11.4, "ret_ytd": 0.2, "ret_pivot": 17.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": 5.0, "ret_120": -25.6, "ret_250": -3.2, "mdd_250": -47.9, "vol_250": 45.4, "pos_52w": 64.6}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 41, "hard": 31, "bondness": 39}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 155.0 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 20%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(14 篇研报)前瞻 PE 175.7 倍,次年 134.4 倍,PEG 5.67。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.1%(经营现金流/市值 -2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 1.75 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 155.0 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 5% / -26%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空装备Ⅱ」48 家中位:PE 73.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 32.0% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 36%。", "航发动力:PE 比行业中位高 81.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 21.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点。"]}}