{"F": {"ts_code": "600888.SH", "name": "新疆众和", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "工业金属", "sw3": "铝", "ind": "工业金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960215", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.87, "pe_ttm": 19.3243, "pb": 1.1822, "dv_ttm": 1.3171, "total_mv": 1532895.7833, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.5, 13.3, 17.0, 15.5, 10.8, 9.0], "rev_series": [57.2, 82.3, 77.4, 65.3, 73.2, 78.9], "np_series": [3.5, 8.5, 15.5, 15.6, 12.0, 6.6], "roe_series": [7.6, 14.6, 20.4, 17.3, 11.7, 5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 79.8, "np_ttm": 7.9, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": -32.2, "fcf_yield": -21.0, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 13.3, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 3.5, "npm_median": 16.5, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 42.2, "fix_assets": 106.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.18, "capex_dep": 5.91, "interest_debt": 68.2, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 43.8, "debt_mv": 44.5, "payout": 27.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.7, "np_cagr3": -24.7, "rev_yoy": 2.0, "np_yoy": 33.5, "np_vol": 70.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电子新材料", 31.0], ["铝合金材料及制品", 26.0], ["铝合金及制品", 26.0], ["氧化铝", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.3, "ret_prev2_year": -0.3, "ret_ytd": 22.5, "ret_pivot": 62.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.0, "ret_60": -10.4, "ret_120": 5.6, "ret_250": 27.8, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 50.8, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": 70, "hard": 68, "bondness": 52}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 107 亿,占总资产 42%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:铝 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -21.0%,股息率 1.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 74%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 42%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -21.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.3%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 5.91 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.3 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -10% / 6%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「工业金属」60 家中位:PE 20.5 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 10.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "新疆众和:PE 比行业中位低 1.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点。"]}}