{"F": {"ts_code": "600887.SH", "name": "伊利股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960312", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.86, "pe_ttm": 16.783, "pb": 3.1632, "dv_ttm": 5.1378, "total_mv": 16989918.5716, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.0, 30.6, 32.3, 32.6, 33.9, 34.6], "rev_series": [965.2, 1101.4, 1227.0, 1257.6, 1153.9, 1156.4], "np_series": [70.8, 87.0, 94.3, 104.3, 84.5, 115.7], "roe_series": [25.0, 22.3, 19.3, 20.1, 15.8, 21.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1181.9, "np_ttm": 101.2, "ocf_ttm": 211.4, "fcf_ttm": 182.5, "fcf_yield": 10.7, "ocf_yield": 12.4, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 7.9, "roe_median": 20.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.7, "fix_assets": 341.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 3.16, "capex_dep": 0.72, "interest_debt": 653.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.7, "debt_ratio": 63.6, "debt_mv": 38.5, "payout": 75.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.0, "np_cagr3": 7.0, "rev_yoy": 4.1, "np_yoy": -20.0, "np_vol": 18.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 6.0, "consensus_n": 35, "fwd_pe": 16.0, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["液体乳", 26.0], ["奶粉及奶制品", 12.0], ["冷饮产品系列", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 0.4, "ret_prev2_year": 20.2, "ret_ytd": -3.0, "ret_pivot": 39.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": 4.9, "ret_120": 4.1, "ret_250": 0.3, "mdd_250": -15.3, "vol_250": 18.7, "pos_52w": 94.9}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 55, "hard": 35, "bondness": 87}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 75%、股息率 5.1%、营收 3 年复合 -2.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.6%),硬资产占比 22%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.7%(经营现金流/市值 12.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 0.72 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.8 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 0%,最大回撤 -15%,年化波动 19%,现价在 52 周高点的 95%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 5% / 4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "伊利股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}