{"F": {"ts_code": "600886.SH", "name": "国投电力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "水力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.25, "pe_ttm": 15.9883, "pb": 1.719, "dv_ttm": 3.5656, "total_mv": 11406404.3775, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.9, 29.3, 32.0, 36.1, 37.5, 41.1], "rev_series": [393.2, 436.8, 504.9, 567.1, 578.2, 530.1], "np_series": [55.2, 24.4, 40.8, 67.0, 66.4, 73.9], "roe_series": [12.6, 4.9, 7.7, 11.8, 11.0, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 512.0, "np_ttm": 71.3, "ocf_ttm": 284.2, "fcf_ttm": 82.6, "fcf_yield": 7.2, "ocf_yield": 24.9, "gm_median": 36.1, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -12.8, "npm_median": 20.8, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 74.2, "fix_assets": 2356.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.59, "capex_dep": 1.95, "interest_debt": 1613.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.9, "debt_ratio": 61.3, "debt_mv": 141.5, "payout": 54.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.6, "np_cagr3": 21.9, "rev_yoy": -7.0, "np_yoy": -6.8, "np_vol": 45.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 15.3, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 7.0, "peg": 2.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["电力", 44.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0], ["其他", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -19.4, "ret_prev2_year": 33.6, "ret_ytd": 13.0, "ret_pivot": -3.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.1, "ret_60": 7.5, "ret_120": -0.2, "ret_250": -0.8, "mdd_250": -14.5, "vol_250": 19.9, "pos_52w": 95.5}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 53, "hard": 100, "bondness": 74}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 55%、股息率 3.6%、营收 3 年复合 1.6%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 74%、毛利率 36.1% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.2%(经营现金流/市值 24.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 74%,资本开支/折旧 1.95 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.0 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -14%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 8% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "国投电力:PE 比行业中位低 11.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}