{"F": {"ts_code": "600885.SH", "name": "宏发股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "电网自动化设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.72, "pe_ttm": 28.3586, "pb": 4.184, "dv_ttm": 0.9714, "total_mv": 5528006.8396, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.0, 34.6, 34.1, 36.9, 36.2, 34.3], "rev_series": [78.2, 100.2, 117.3, 129.3, 141.0, 172.0], "np_series": [8.3, 10.6, 12.5, 13.9, 16.3, 17.6], "roe_series": [15.9, 17.6, 17.8, 17.6, 18.3, 15.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 198.8, "np_ttm": 19.5, "ocf_ttm": 22.5, "fcf_ttm": 9.0, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 34.6, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -2.9, "npm_median": 14.5, "roe_median": 17.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.3, "fix_assets": 65.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 4.18, "capex_dep": 1.35, "interest_debt": 11.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 34.3, "debt_mv": 2.1, "payout": 32.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.6, "np_cagr3": 12.1, "rev_yoy": 32.0, "np_yoy": 19.9, "np_vol": 6.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.5, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 24.8, "fwd_pe2": 20.1, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["继电器产品", 48.0], ["继电器", 48.0], ["电气产品", 2.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.5, "ret_prev2_year": 17.6, "ret_ytd": 18.9, "ret_pivot": 92.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": 12.7, "ret_120": 20.7, "ret_250": 39.4, "mdd_250": -27.6, "vol_250": 44.2, "pos_52w": 93.8}, "S": {"duration": 51, "pricing": 57, "hard": 40, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 28.4 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.6%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.6%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.35 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 28.4 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 39%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 94%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 13% / 21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "宏发股份:PE 比行业中位低 15.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点。"]}}