{"F": {"ts_code": "600884.SH", "name": "杉杉股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "电池化学品", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19960130", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.55, "pe_ttm": 24.1712, "pb": 1.1282, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2593713.276, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.4, 25.0, 24.0, 16.2, 14.4, 17.3], "rev_series": [82.2, 207.0, 217.0, 190.7, 186.8, 215.9], "np_series": [1.4, 33.4, 26.9, 7.7, -3.7, 4.6], "roe_series": [1.1, 21.3, 12.8, 3.3, -1.7, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 238.6, "np_ttm": 10.7, "ocf_ttm": 16.3, "fcf_ttm": 8.6, "fcf_yield": 3.3, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 17.3, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": 5.6, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.7, "fix_assets": 171.6, "goodwill_ratio": 2.4, "pb_calc": 1.13, "capex_dep": 0.4, "interest_debt": 168.1, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 48.5, "debt_mv": 64.8, "payout": 57.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": -44.6, "rev_yoy": 23.0, "np_yoy": 296.7, "np_vol": 937.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["商品销售收入", 33.0], ["锂电池材料", 17.0], ["偏光片业务", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 81.3, "ret_prev2_year": -44.5, "ret_ytd": -14.5, "ret_pivot": 65.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.0, "ret_60": -11.8, "ret_120": -20.6, "ret_250": -0.0, "mdd_250": -36.0, "vol_250": 49.2, "pos_52w": 65.3}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 46, "hard": 59, "bondness": 52}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.40 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.2 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -0%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -12% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "杉杉股份:PE 比行业中位低 11.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.9个百分点。"]}}