{"F": {"ts_code": "600883.SH", "name": "博闻科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "种植业", "sw3": "食用菌", "ind": "种植业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19951208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.98, "pe_ttm": 76.1399, "pb": 1.9113, "dv_ttm": 0.4386, "total_mv": 188398.224, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-18.0, 15.7, -12.9, -1.0, 0.9, 8.0], "rev_series": [0.2, 0.4, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6], "np_series": [0.2, 0.5, 0.8, 1.0, 0.7, 0.2], "roe_series": [3.5, 7.6, 10.3, 11.2, 7.7, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 0.9, "gm_std": 9.5, "gm_stab": -9.59, "gm_chg_2022": 5.2, "npm_median": 166.0, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.1, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.91, "capex_dep": 1.11, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 6.6, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 19.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 68.1, "np_cagr3": -33.2, "rev_yoy": -8.8, "np_yoy": 5.3, "np_vol": 67.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 27.0], ["松茸及食用菌制品业务：冷冻牛肝菌", 9.0], ["冷冻牛肝菌", 9.0], ["咖啡业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.3, "ret_prev2_year": -22.7, "ret_ytd": -0.6, "ret_pivot": 48.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.0, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -8.4, "ret_250": -4.1, "mdd_250": -32.3, "vol_250": 32.4, "pos_52w": 85.7}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 12, "hard": 3, "bondness": 12}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 76.1 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 2%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 0.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 0.9%,稳定度 -959%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.11 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 76.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 86%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 2% / -8%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「种植业」22 家中位:PE 71.5 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 24.2% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 38%。", "博闻科技:PE 比行业中位高 4.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 23.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.7个百分点。"]}}