{"F": {"ts_code": "600880.SH", "name": "博瑞传播", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "教育", "sw3": "教育运营及其他", "ind": "教育", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19951115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.11, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5275, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 449359.4931, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.7, 32.1, 44.5, 43.0, 44.2, 31.7], "rev_series": [4.8, 6.4, 4.7, 5.8, 5.4, 4.1], "np_series": [0.9, 0.8, 0.4, 0.4, 0.2, -0.2], "roe_series": [3.0, 2.7, 1.3, 1.2, 0.6, -0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": -1.9, "gm_median": 43.0, "gm_std": 5.9, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 6.8, "npm_median": 8.8, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.1, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 10.4, "pb_calc": 1.53, "capex_dep": 3.58, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 20.5, "debt_mv": 6.1, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 19.4, "np_yoy": -1011.2, "np_vol": 63.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["媒体业务", 25.0], ["网游业务", 7.0], ["软件开发及硬件集成业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.4, "ret_prev2_year": -5.2, "ret_ytd": -16.8, "ret_pivot": 11.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.0, "ret_60": 2.0, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": -21.1, "mdd_250": -50.1, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 57.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 63, "hard": 7, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 20%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.9%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.0%),硬资产占比 4%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 3.58 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 2% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「教育」17 家中位:PE 96.5 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 43.0% / 固定资产占比 6% / 分红率 49%。", "博瑞传播:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点。"]}}