{"F": {"ts_code": "600879.SH", "name": "航天电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航天装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航天装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航天装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19951115", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.38, "pe_ttm": 505.3814, "pb": 2.2751, "dv_ttm": 0.146, "total_mv": 4744392.3934, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.0, 20.1, 19.6, 20.3, 21.0, 20.3], "rev_series": [140.1, 159.9, 174.8, 187.3, 142.8, 139.1], "np_series": [4.8, 5.5, 6.1, 5.2, 5.5, 2.3], "roe_series": [3.8, 4.2, 4.2, 2.9, 2.7, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 126.2, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -9.2, "fcf_yield": -1.9, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 20.3, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 0.6, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.7, "fix_assets": 53.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.28, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 64.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 50.2, "debt_mv": 13.6, "payout": 30.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -7.3, "np_cagr3": -28.1, "rev_yoy": -22.2, "np_yoy": -76.6, "np_vol": 27.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 132.2, "fwd_pe2": 100.9, "fwd_g1": 282.0, "fwd_g2": 31.0, "peg": 4.26, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["航天电子信息产品", 32.0], ["无人系统装备产品", 6.0], ["航天机电组件产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 139.6, "ret_prev2_year": 17.1, "ret_ytd": -32.5, "ret_pivot": 101.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.3, "ret_60": -28.5, "ret_120": -38.3, "ret_250": 21.0, "mdd_250": -55.5, "vol_250": 63.7, "pos_52w": 45.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 17, "bondness": 46}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 505.4 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(8 篇研报)前瞻 PE 132.2 倍,次年 100.9 倍,PEG 4.26。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 505.4 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 46%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -28% / -38%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航天装备Ⅱ」9 家中位:PE 237.1 / 股息率 0.1% / 毛利率 35.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 36%。", "航天电子:PE 比行业中位高 268.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.1个百分点。"]}}