{"F": {"ts_code": "600877.SH", "name": "电科芯片", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19951013", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.02, "pe_ttm": 632.5779, "pb": 5.7111, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1423239.519, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.8, 29.7, 32.3, 30.5, 29.9, 33.5], "rev_series": [4.0, 16.6, 15.7, 15.2, 10.4, 10.2], "np_series": [0.8, 1.4, 2.2, 2.3, 0.7, 0.4], "roe_series": [22.1, 11.9, 10.9, 10.3, 2.8, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.4, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 0.1, "gm_median": 30.5, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -10.5, "npm_median": 12.8, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.1, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.71, "capex_dep": 6.63, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 13.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -13.2, "np_cagr3": -42.0, "rev_yoy": -19.0, "np_yoy": -249.4, "np_vol": 44.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["集成电路销售收入", 23.0], ["集成电路产品", 23.0], ["充电器、电源适配器、移动电源等", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.1, "ret_prev2_year": -5.7, "ret_ytd": -31.5, "ret_pivot": 9.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.5, "ret_60": -8.5, "ret_120": -31.2, "ret_250": -17.7, "mdd_250": -54.8, "vol_250": 53.0, "pos_52w": 48.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 13, "bondness": 21}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 632.6 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.5%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 6.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 632.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -8% / -31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "电科芯片:PE 比行业中位高 551.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.3个百分点。"]}}