{"F": {"ts_code": "600874.SH", "name": "创业环保", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19950630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.61, "pe_ttm": 10.0358, "pb": 0.8455, "dv_ttm": 3.7255, "total_mv": 881004.5541, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.0, 29.7, 34.0, 39.0, 39.8, 38.3], "rev_series": [33.6, 45.4, 45.2, 46.7, 48.3, 47.6], "np_series": [5.7, 6.9, 7.5, 8.7, 8.1, 8.6], "roe_series": [8.9, 10.1, 9.6, 9.8, 8.6, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 48.3, "np_ttm": 8.8, "ocf_ttm": 37.0, "fcf_ttm": 29.0, "fcf_yield": 32.9, "ocf_yield": 42.0, "gm_median": 38.3, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 18.0, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.2, "fix_assets": 18.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.85, "capex_dep": 3.99, "interest_debt": 96.6, "debt_ebitda": 4.2, "debt_ratio": 54.7, "debt_mv": 109.6, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.7, "np_cagr3": 4.7, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": 3.3, "np_vol": 9.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 50.0, "earn_yield": 10.0, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 9.5, "fwd_pe2": 9.0, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 6.0, "peg": 1.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["污水处理及水厂设施建设", 25.0], ["污水处理业务", 25.0], ["再生水处理及再生水配套工程", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.5, "ret_prev2_year": 11.7, "ret_ytd": -2.1, "ret_pivot": 24.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.6, "ret_60": -0.0, "ret_120": -11.9, "ret_250": -4.1, "mdd_250": -19.9, "vol_250": 21.2, "pos_52w": 87.2}, "S": {"duration": 22, "pricing": 57, "hard": 12, "bondness": 65}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 10.0 倍、股息率 3.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%、固定资产占比 7%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.3%),硬资产占比 7%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 32.9%(经营现金流/市值 42.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 3.99 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.0 倍 粗算,约 50%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 21%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -0% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "创业环保:PE 比行业中位低 16.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.7个百分点。"]}}