{"F": {"ts_code": "600873.SH", "name": "梅花生物", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19950217", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.82, "pe_ttm": 10.0833, "pb": 1.3994, "dv_ttm": 5.4719, "total_mv": 2192917.0094, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.7, 19.3, 25.1, 19.7, 20.1, 19.0], "rev_series": [170.5, 228.4, 279.4, 277.6, 250.7, 242.1], "np_series": [9.8, 23.5, 44.1, 31.8, 27.4, 32.8], "roe_series": [10.9, 23.9, 36.5, 23.0, 19.1, 21.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 241.6, "np_ttm": 21.7, "ocf_ttm": 20.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 19.7, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 10.5, "npm_median": 11.5, "roe_median": 23.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 49.8, "fix_assets": 133.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.4, "capex_dep": 1.49, "interest_debt": 40.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 41.5, "debt_mv": 18.3, "payout": 39.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.7, "np_cagr3": -9.4, "rev_yoy": -0.4, "np_yoy": -62.6, "np_vol": 62.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 50.0, "earn_yield": 9.9, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 11.6, "fwd_pe2": 8.9, "fwd_g1": -13.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.39, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["主营业务", 49.0], ["饲料氨基酸(赖氨酸、苏氨酸、色氨酸等)", 21.0], ["味精及谷氨酸", 13.0], ["大原料副产品(肥料、蛋白粉、胚芽、玉米皮粉、饲料", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.7, "ret_prev2_year": 13.3, "ret_ytd": -19.4, "ret_pivot": -1.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.8, "ret_60": -5.8, "ret_120": -36.8, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -44.2, "vol_250": 30.1, "pos_52w": 63.1}, "S": {"duration": 22, "pricing": 52, "hard": 80, "bondness": 68}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 50%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 1.49 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 10.1 倍 粗算,约 50%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -6% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "梅花生物:PE 比行业中位低 25.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点。"]}}