{"F": {"ts_code": "600871.SH", "name": "石化油服", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "油服工程", "sw3": "油田服务", "ind": "油服工程", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19950411", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.21, "pe_ttm": 61.9636, "pb": 4.1861, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 4189507.1218, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.0, 7.2, 7.8, 7.2, 7.8, 8.1], "rev_series": [680.7, 695.3, 737.7, 799.8, 811.0, 807.1], "np_series": [0.8, 1.8, 4.6, 5.9, 6.3, 6.6], "roe_series": [1.2, 2.6, 6.5, 7.6, 7.6, 7.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 813.3, "np_ttm": 6.8, "ocf_ttm": 74.3, "fcf_ttm": 50.2, "fcf_yield": 12.0, "ocf_yield": 17.7, "gm_median": 7.8, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 29.6, "fix_assets": 229.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.19, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 321.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 87.1, "debt_mv": 76.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": 12.4, "rev_yoy": 1.7, "np_yoy": 3.5, "np_vol": 65.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 55.2, "fwd_pe2": 44.2, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 2.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钻井", 49.0], ["工程建设", 26.0], ["井下特种作业", 13.0], ["其他主营业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.9, "ret_prev2_year": 11.5, "ret_ytd": 2.3, "ret_pivot": 28.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": -0.5, "ret_120": -33.2, "ret_250": 5.7, "mdd_250": -52.9, "vol_250": 49.0, "pos_52w": 51.8}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 70, "hard": 47, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 62.0 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 7.8%),硬资产占比 30%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 12.0%(经营现金流/市值 17.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / -0% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「油服工程」14 家中位:PE 62.0 / 股息率 1.3% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 35%。", "石化油服:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.8个百分点。"]}}