{"F": {"ts_code": "600869.SH", "name": "远东股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19950206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.2, "pe_ttm": 389.5931, "pb": 10.763, "dv_ttm": 0.0466, "total_mv": 4705027.724, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.2, 13.8, 12.9, 11.7, 9.1, 9.2], "rev_series": [198.0, 208.7, 216.8, 244.6, 260.9, 281.1], "np_series": [-16.9, 5.3, 5.5, 3.2, -3.2, 0.6], "roe_series": [-41.9, 15.3, 13.7, 7.1, -7.1, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 281.2, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 9.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 11.7, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 0.8, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.4, "fix_assets": 43.5, "goodwill_ratio": 2.7, "pb_calc": 10.76, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 74.2, "debt_ebitda": 7.9, "debt_ratio": 80.2, "debt_mv": 15.8, "payout": 43.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 9.0, "np_cagr3": -52.6, "rev_yoy": 0.1, "np_yoy": 43.1, "np_vol": 120.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 58.9, "fwd_pe2": 36.7, "fwd_g1": 562.0, "fwd_g2": 61.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["线缆分部", 42.0], ["线缆", 42.0], ["电池分部", 6.0], ["智能电池", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 69.6, "ret_prev2_year": 10.0, "ret_ytd": 163.7, "ret_pivot": 514.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 31.2, "ret_60": -28.1, "ret_120": 58.6, "ret_250": 197.8, "mdd_250": -66.0, "vol_250": 72.6, "pos_52w": 56.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 31, "bondness": 41}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 389.6 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 19%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(6 篇研报)前瞻 PE 58.9 倍,次年 36.7 倍,PEG 0.97。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.7%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 389.6 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 198%,最大回撤 -66%,年化波动 73%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / -28% / 59%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "远东股份:PE 比行业中位高 346.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}