{"F": {"ts_code": "600866.SH", "name": "星湖科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "食品及饲料添加剂", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.38, "pe_ttm": 34.1131, "pb": 0.9511, "dv_ttm": 8.6758, "total_mv": 727724.9988, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.1, 24.8, 17.6, 14.0, 17.2, 16.5], "rev_series": [11.2, 12.4, 174.9, 173.7, 173.3, 159.0], "np_series": [1.5, 1.1, 6.1, 6.8, 9.4, 9.8], "roe_series": [9.3, 6.2, 14.1, 9.4, 12.2, 12.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 159.3, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_ttm": -21.5, "fcf_yield": -29.6, "ocf_yield": -1.6, "gm_median": 17.2, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -15.4, "npm_median": 6.1, "roe_median": 12.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.3, "fix_assets": 101.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 0.95, "capex_dep": 2.43, "interest_debt": 72.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 57.7, "debt_mv": 99.2, "payout": 66.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -3.1, "np_cagr3": 17.2, "rev_yoy": 0.4, "np_yoy": -91.5, "np_vol": 119.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["主营业务", 49.0], ["饲料添加剂销售", 35.0], ["食品添加剂", 12.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 15.1, "ret_prev2_year": 62.2, "ret_ytd": -33.3, "ret_pivot": 7.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": 2.8, "ret_120": -42.9, "ret_250": -44.9, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 30.2, "pos_52w": 54.7}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 40, "hard": 87, "bondness": 88}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -29.6%(经营现金流/市值 -1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -15.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 2.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.1 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -45%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / 3% / -43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "星湖科技:PE 比行业中位低 1.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 7.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.8个百分点。"]}}