{"F": {"ts_code": "600863.SH", "name": "华能蒙电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "火力发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.72, "pe_ttm": 17.9109, "pb": 1.8591, "dv_ttm": 4.661, "total_mv": 3698209.4912, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.6, 10.0, 17.6, 21.0, 19.3, 23.2], "rev_series": [153.6, 189.3, 230.7, 225.3, 222.9, 210.5], "np_series": [7.6, 4.5, 17.7, 20.0, 23.3, 24.9], "roe_series": [5.3, 2.9, 10.5, 11.2, 12.8, 14.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 202.5, "np_ttm": 24.3, "ocf_ttm": 70.1, "fcf_ttm": 27.8, "fcf_yield": 7.5, "ocf_yield": 19.0, "gm_median": 19.3, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 11.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.0, "fix_assets": 302.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.77, "capex_dep": 1.77, "interest_debt": 137.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 43.1, "debt_mv": 37.1, "payout": 64.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.0, "np_cagr3": 12.2, "rev_yoy": -15.0, "np_yoy": -22.3, "np_vol": 107.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 14.7, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 22.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.05, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["电力", 41.0], ["煤炭", 5.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.5, "ret_prev2_year": 18.8, "ret_ytd": 10.8, "ret_pivot": 22.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.0, "ret_60": -10.4, "ret_120": -8.3, "ret_250": 22.0, "mdd_250": -46.9, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 46, "hard": 98, "bondness": 77}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 65%、股息率 4.7%、营收 3 年复合 -3.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 61%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.5%(经营现金流/市值 19.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.3%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 61%,资本开支/折旧 1.77 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.9 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -10% / -8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "华能蒙电:PE 比行业中位低 9.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点。"]}}