{"F": {"ts_code": "600861.SH", "name": "北京人力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "专业服务", "sw3": "人力资源服务", "ind": "专业服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940520", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.04, "pe_ttm": 9.627, "pb": 1.035, "dv_ttm": 7.9241, "total_mv": 738210.9608, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.9, 58.6, 52.4, 6.9, 5.9, 5.5], "rev_series": [7.0, 7.0, 4.8, 383.1, 430.3, 451.9], "np_series": [-0.7, -0.6, -2.2, 5.5, 7.9, 11.7], "roe_series": [-3.2, -2.9, -10.3, 13.7, 12.6, 16.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 450.1, "np_ttm": 7.7, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": 5.1, "fcf_yield": 6.9, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 6.9, "gm_std": 24.3, "gm_stab": -2.52, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 2.3, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.03, "capex_dep": 0.56, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 48.5, "debt_mv": 2.7, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 353.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -0.8, "np_yoy": -49.6, "np_vol": 110.0, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 48.0, "earn_yield": 10.4, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 8.1, "fwd_pe2": 7.3, "fwd_g1": 19.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 0.74, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["服务业收入", 31.0], ["业务外包服务", 31.0], ["薪酬福利服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.8, "ret_prev2_year": 6.6, "ret_ytd": -24.7, "ret_pivot": 11.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": -34.5, "mdd_250": -38.9, "vol_250": 21.9, "pos_52w": 65.5}, "S": {"duration": 21, "pricing": 12, "hard": 1, "bondness": 48}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 50%、股息率 7.9%、营收 3 年复合 353.7%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 0%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.9%,稳定度 -252%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.56 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 9.6 倍 粗算,约 48%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -3% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业服务」33 家中位:PE 36.6 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 45.6% / 固定资产占比 24% / 分红率 43%。", "北京人力:PE 比行业中位低 27.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 38.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 23.9个百分点。"]}}