{"F": {"ts_code": "600838.SH", "name": "上海九百", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "多业态零售", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.54, "pe_ttm": 73.4429, "pb": 2.2023, "dv_ttm": 0.3981, "total_mv": 342353.228, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 26.5, 22.3, 27.0, 21.8, 22.3], "rev_series": [0.9, 1.0, 0.7, 0.9, 0.9, 1.0], "np_series": [0.5, 1.0, 0.5, 0.6, 0.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [3.9, 7.1, 3.5, 4.3, 2.8, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.9, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.1, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 22.3, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 5.2, "npm_median": 71.9, "roe_median": 3.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.5, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.2, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 8.0, "debt_mv": 0.7, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.7, "np_cagr3": -4.7, "rev_yoy": -4.1, "np_yoy": 5.4, "np_vol": 49.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["商业收入", 13.0], ["商业", 13.0], ["租赁", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.6, "ret_prev2_year": 24.6, "ret_ytd": -20.8, "ret_pivot": 31.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.5, "ret_60": 13.5, "ret_120": -20.1, "ret_250": -4.5, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 44.4, "pos_52w": 59.5}, "S": {"duration": 84, "pricing": 54, "hard": 4, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 73.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 2%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 73.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / 14% / -20%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "上海九百:PE 比行业中位高 12.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.9个百分点。"]}}