{"F": {"ts_code": "600834.SH", "name": "申通地铁", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "铁路公路", "sw3": "公交", "ind": "铁路公路", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.97, "pe_ttm": 64.4539, "pb": 2.17, "dv_ttm": 0.5019, "total_mv": 380473.3743, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.2, 29.5, 33.2, 32.6, 22.9, 20.2], "rev_series": [3.0, 3.5, 3.4, 4.0, 5.9, 6.0], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.5, 0.5], "roe_series": [4.9, 4.6, 4.5, 4.2, 3.1, 3.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 7.0, "npm_median": 18.5, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.1, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 20.7, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 35.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.2, "np_cagr3": -9.4, "rev_yoy": 29.8, "np_yoy": 17.6, "np_vol": 11.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 41.0], ["运营维护", 16.0], ["地铁运营服务", 16.0], ["综合物业服务", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.7, "ret_prev2_year": -0.5, "ret_ytd": -5.6, "ret_pivot": 18.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.3, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -7.2, "ret_250": -11.3, "mdd_250": -30.3, "vol_250": 23.8, "pos_52w": 84.7}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 55, "hard": 15, "bondness": 18}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 64.5 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 9%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 64.5 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -30%,年化波动 24%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 12% / -7%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「铁路公路」33 家中位:PE 15.4 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 32.2% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 48%。", "申通地铁:PE 比行业中位高 49.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.9个百分点。"]}}