{"F": {"ts_code": "600828.SH", "name": "茂业商业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "百货", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.97, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.313, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 860795.3522, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.0, 61.9, 63.1, 59.2, 62.3, 62.3], "rev_series": [37.0, 41.7, 34.1, 31.7, 27.2, 23.7], "np_series": [2.1, 4.1, 3.4, 0.5, 0.4, -2.5], "roe_series": [3.2, 6.0, 4.8, 0.7, 0.5, -3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 20.3, "np_ttm": -4.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 2.8, "gm_median": 62.3, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 1.4, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 23.5, "fix_assets": 40.1, "goodwill_ratio": 5.9, "pb_calc": 1.31, "capex_dep": -0.04, "interest_debt": 56.0, "debt_ebitda": 8.1, "debt_ratio": 58.7, "debt_mv": 65.1, "payout": 92.2, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -11.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -26.4, "np_yoy": -645.0, "np_vol": 306.5, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["百货零售", 34.0], ["其他业务", 10.0], ["酒店及其他行业", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.6, "ret_prev2_year": 20.6, "ret_ytd": -14.9, "ret_pivot": 100.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.8, "ret_60": 24.9, "ret_120": -18.1, "ret_250": 19.5, "mdd_250": -57.7, "vol_250": 63.5, "pos_52w": 61.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 74, "hard": 38, "bondness": 67}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -4.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 59%,有息负债 56 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 62.3%),硬资产占比 24%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 2.8%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.3%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 -0.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 20%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / 25% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "茂业商业:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 28.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.1个百分点。"]}}