{"F": {"ts_code": "600826.SH", "name": "兰生股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "专业服务", "sw3": "会展服务", "ind": "专业服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940204", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.71, "pe_ttm": 19.5101, "pb": 1.3177, "dv_ttm": 3.8911, "total_mv": 558345.5556, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.5, 29.6, 37.7, 31.9, 32.6, 36.6], "rev_series": [29.8, 9.2, 7.7, 14.2, 16.4, 16.3], "np_series": [1.4, 1.2, 1.1, 2.8, 3.1, 3.3], "roe_series": [3.8, 3.2, 3.2, 7.4, 7.6, 7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.1, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 27.2, "npm_median": 20.4, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.3, "fix_assets": 5.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.32, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 3.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.0, "debt_ratio": 20.6, "debt_mv": 6.5, "payout": 66.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 28.1, "np_cagr3": 41.7, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": -69.5, "np_vol": 56.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 17.0, "fwd_pe2": 15.5, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["会展组织业务", 19.0], ["会展组织", 19.0], ["展馆运营服务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.5, "ret_prev2_year": 46.0, "ret_ytd": -25.1, "ret_pivot": 55.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.7, "ret_60": -14.6, "ret_120": -27.8, "ret_250": -29.5, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 42.8, "pos_52w": 61.2}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 59, "hard": 15, "bondness": 50}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 67%、股息率 3.9%、营收 3 年复合 28.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.6%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 27.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.5 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -15% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专业服务」33 家中位:PE 36.6 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 45.6% / 固定资产占比 24% / 分红率 43%。", "兰生股份:PE 比行业中位低 17.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.0个百分点。"]}}