{"F": {"ts_code": "600825.SH", "name": "新华传媒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "出版", "sw3": "大众出版", "ind": "出版", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940204", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.31, "pe_ttm": 130.0131, "pb": 2.2065, "dv_ttm": 0.2448, "total_mv": 554835.4749, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.5, 32.5, 30.6, 31.0, 30.1, 29.0], "rev_series": [12.9, 12.8, 12.6, 13.1, 14.3, 14.5], "np_series": [-2.9, 0.3, 0.1, 0.4, 0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [-11.5, 1.3, 0.3, 1.5, 1.6, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 2.6, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 30.6, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.9, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 1.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.2, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.21, "capex_dep": 3.59, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 33.9, "debt_mv": 2.5, "payout": 32.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 4.8, "np_cagr3": 68.8, "rev_yoy": 0.0, "np_yoy": 1.3, "np_vol": 133.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 45.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.5, "ret_prev2_year": 47.2, "ret_ytd": -13.9, "ret_pivot": 28.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.8, "ret_60": 10.6, "ret_120": -13.3, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -39.9, "vol_250": 37.7, "pos_52w": 71.6}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 55, "hard": 5, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 130.0 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 3%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.6%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 3.59 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 130.0 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 11% / -13%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「出版」29 家中位:PE 32.6 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 34.7% / 固定资产占比 10% / 分红率 50%。", "新华传媒:PE 比行业中位高 97.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}