{"F": {"ts_code": "600822.SH", "name": "上海物贸", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车服务", "sw3": "汽车经销商", "ind": "汽车服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940204", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.46, "pe_ttm": 169.7213, "pb": 3.3707, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 419593.0734, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [4.4, 5.7, 8.0, 10.4, 11.2, 15.8], "rev_series": [78.6, 65.7, 38.1, 34.5, 25.5, 16.8], "np_series": [1.1, 1.5, 0.6, 1.4, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [15.7, 17.2, 6.1, 12.9, 4.3, 2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 10.4, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": 3.6, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 6.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.4, "fix_assets": 1.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.37, "capex_dep": 2.93, "interest_debt": 1.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.9, "debt_ratio": 25.0, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -23.9, "np_cagr3": -21.4, "rev_yoy": -25.2, "np_yoy": -29.8, "np_vol": 75.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["销售商品", 26.0], ["商品销售收入", 26.0], ["服务费收入", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.8, "ret_prev2_year": 0.9, "ret_ytd": -21.0, "ret_pivot": 8.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -17.9, "ret_250": -31.9, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 29.5, "pos_52w": 64.1}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 39, "hard": 12, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 169.7 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 7%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 7%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.4%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 7%,资本开支/折旧 2.93 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 169.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 2% / -18%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车服务」10 家中位:PE 28.7 / 股息率 2.2% / 毛利率 10.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 56%。", "上海物贸:PE 比行业中位高 141.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.7个百分点。"]}}