{"F": {"ts_code": "600821.SH", "name": "金开新能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "光伏发电", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.04, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.3615, "dv_ttm": 1.6556, "total_mv": 1188264.3, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.0, 62.5, 62.7, 57.0, 55.1, 50.3], "rev_series": [13.6, 19.1, 30.8, 33.3, 36.1, 34.5], "np_series": [0.6, 4.1, 7.3, 8.0, 8.0, 1.0], "roe_series": [3.6, 10.1, 11.0, 9.3, 8.8, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 32.2, "np_ttm": -2.6, "ocf_ttm": 25.8, "fcf_ttm": 19.9, "fcf_yield": 16.8, "ocf_yield": 21.7, "gm_median": 57.0, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 25.1, "roe_median": 9.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 55.8, "fix_assets": 226.6, "goodwill_ratio": 5.5, "pb_calc": 1.36, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 271.0, "debt_ebitda": 10.2, "debt_ratio": 73.9, "debt_mv": 228.0, "payout": 48.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 3.8, "np_cagr3": -48.3, "rev_yoy": -12.0, "np_yoy": -81.7, "np_vol": 254.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 29.5, "fwd_pe2": 22.2, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 0.89, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["光伏发电", 25.0], ["风力发电", 23.0], ["算力服务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -1.9, "ret_prev2_year": -9.5, "ret_ytd": 18.4, "ret_pivot": 27.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.2, "ret_60": -5.6, "ret_120": -40.5, "ret_250": 8.4, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 57.5, "pos_52w": 53.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 68, "hard": 89, "bondness": 58}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 74%,有息负债 271 亿,经营现金流/市值 21.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 56%、毛利率 57.0% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(电力:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 16.8%(经营现金流/市值 21.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 57.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -6% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "金开新能:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 34.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.9个百分点。"]}}