{"F": {"ts_code": "600819.SH", "name": "耀皮玻璃", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "玻璃玻纤", "sw3": "玻璃制造", "ind": "玻璃玻纤", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.98, "pe_ttm": 70.1884, "pb": 1.509, "dv_ttm": 0.6942, "total_mv": 584100.7458, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.8, 19.4, 14.0, 12.3, 17.4, 18.3], "rev_series": [40.8, 46.5, 47.6, 55.9, 56.4, 56.4], "np_series": [1.8, 1.1, 0.2, -1.3, 1.2, 1.4], "roe_series": [5.3, 3.1, 0.4, -3.7, 3.4, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 56.5, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 7.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -2.9, "ocf_yield": 12.0, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.2, "fix_assets": 40.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.2, "pb_calc": 1.51, "capex_dep": 2.43, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 43.3, "debt_mv": 13.6, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.9, "np_cagr3": 107.5, "rev_yoy": 0.4, "np_yoy": -60.7, "np_vol": 389.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["汽车玻璃", 19.0], ["汽车加工玻璃", 19.0], ["浮法玻璃", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.6, "ret_prev2_year": 6.3, "ret_ytd": -25.9, "ret_pivot": 37.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.8, "ret_60": -6.3, "ret_120": -24.9, "ret_250": -6.8, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 48.8, "pos_52w": 61.1}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 42, "hard": 72, "bondness": 33}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 45%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.9%(经营现金流/市值 12.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 2.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 70.2 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -7%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -6% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「玻璃玻纤」16 家中位:PE 68.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 22.1% / 固定资产占比 53% / 分红率 37%。", "耀皮玻璃:PE 比行业中位高 2.1倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点。"]}}