{"F": {"ts_code": "600817.SH", "name": "宇通重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环保设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "环保设备Ⅲ", "ind": "环保设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940128", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.93, "pe_ttm": 17.9804, "pb": 2.1521, "dv_ttm": 5.0352, "total_mv": 528342.3324, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 28.5, 29.5, 27.4, 21.6, 24.7], "rev_series": [34.8, 37.6, 35.9, 29.1, 38.0, 34.9], "np_series": [2.9, 3.9, 3.9, 2.2, 2.3, 3.1], "roe_series": [31.7, 19.8, 16.6, 8.9, 9.3, 12.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.3, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_ttm": 4.1, "fcf_yield": 7.7, "ocf_yield": 8.1, "gm_median": 27.4, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -0.3, "npm_median": 9.4, "roe_median": 12.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.4, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.15, "capex_dep": 0.5, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 33.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 88.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -0.9, "np_cagr3": -7.1, "rev_yoy": -9.7, "np_yoy": -13.1, "np_vol": 28.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 16.4, "fwd_pe2": 14.6, "fwd_g1": 10.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 1.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 47.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.5, "ret_prev2_year": 28.6, "ret_ytd": -8.6, "ret_pivot": 20.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.6, "ret_60": 8.5, "ret_120": -14.0, "ret_250": -14.5, "mdd_250": -29.1, "vol_250": 26.1, "pos_52w": 80.9}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 52, "hard": 13, "bondness": 84}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 29个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -0.9%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 88%、股息率 5.0%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:资产负债率 34%(futu 无有息负债明细)。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 5.0% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 18.0 倍 倒过来就是 5.6% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.7%(经营现金流/市值 8.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.4%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.50 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 18.0 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -14%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 8% / -14%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环保设备Ⅱ」27 家中位:PE 34.2 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 27.4% / 固定资产占比 17% / 分红率 41%。", "宇通重工:PE 比行业中位低 16.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 4.0个百分点;毛利率 与行业中位持平;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点。"]}}