{"F": {"ts_code": "600810.SH", "name": "神马股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学纤维", "sw3": "锦纶", "ind": "化学纤维", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.55, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.9922, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 714329.2502, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.4, 29.8, 14.8, 12.5, 10.6, 8.1], "rev_series": [89.1, 134.2, 135.6, 129.2, 139.7, 125.8], "np_series": [3.7, 21.4, 4.3, 1.2, 0.3, -2.2], "roe_series": [8.9, 34.0, 5.6, 1.6, 0.4, -2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 123.8, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 16.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_yield": 6.7, "ocf_yield": 23.1, "gm_median": 12.5, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.39, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 1.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.1, "fix_assets": 126.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.76, "capex_dep": 1.68, "interest_debt": 135.7, "debt_ebitda": 12.4, "debt_ratio": 60.7, "debt_mv": 189.9, "payout": 140.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.0, "np_yoy": 149.1, "np_vol": 436.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["中间体及其他", 16.0], ["聚酰胺产品", 14.0], ["合成纤维产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.8, "ret_prev2_year": 10.9, "ret_ytd": -27.1, "ret_pivot": 7.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": -25.1, "ret_250": -29.9, "mdd_250": -51.0, "vol_250": 45.0, "pos_52w": 57.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 66, "bondness": 70}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 12.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.5%,稳定度 39%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.7%(经营现金流/市值 23.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.5%,稳定度 39%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 5% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学纤维」27 家中位:PE 32.4 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 15.3% / 固定资产占比 46% / 分红率 35%。", "神马股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}