{"F": {"ts_code": "600809.SH", "name": "山西汾酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "白酒Ⅱ", "sw3": "白酒Ⅲ", "ind": "白酒Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 122.56, "pe_ttm": 14.6867, "pb": 3.9253, "dv_ttm": 5.3525, "total_mv": 14951881.2352, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [72.2, 74.9, 75.4, 75.3, 76.2, 74.9], "rev_series": [139.9, 199.7, 262.1, 319.3, 360.1, 387.2], "np_series": [30.8, 53.1, 81.0, 104.4, 122.4, 122.5], "roe_series": [35.8, 42.5, 44.3, 42.5, 39.1, 32.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 358.0, "np_ttm": 101.8, "ocf_ttm": 96.8, "fcf_ttm": 86.4, "fcf_yield": 5.8, "ocf_yield": 6.5, "gm_median": 75.3, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 31.8, "roe_median": 42.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 67.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.93, "capex_dep": 4.68, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 39.3, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 60.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.9, "np_cagr3": 14.8, "rev_yoy": -12.2, "np_yoy": -24.3, "np_vol": 25.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.8, "consensus_n": 35, "fwd_pe": 14.0, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 5.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 1.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["酒类销售", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.8, "ret_prev2_year": -19.7, "ret_ytd": -25.8, "ret_pivot": -13.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.9, "ret_60": 8.4, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": -38.4, "mdd_250": -51.2, "vol_250": 31.9, "pos_52w": 60.7}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 82, "hard": 17, "bondness": 57}, "label": "定价权·品牌", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛", "现金流红利", "资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["没有硬资产(固定资产占比 10%)但有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 75.3%,稳定度 99%、ROE 近 5 年中位 42.5%。", "自由现金流/市值 5.8%,分红率 60%,分子跟得上通胀。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 75.3%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "分子跟得上通胀、久期不长,加息期抗跌;放水期弹性不如科技。属船票一侧的'非债券'部分。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 75.3%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 4.68 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.7 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 8% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「白酒Ⅱ」19 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 3.7% / 毛利率 74.5% / 固定资产占比 27% / 分红率 60%。", "山西汾酒:PE 比行业中位低 11.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.6个百分点。"]}}