{"F": {"ts_code": "600808.SH", "name": "马钢股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "普钢", "sw3": "板材", "ind": "普钢", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940106", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.58, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 0.8292, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1986775.7496, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.8, 13.1, 3.2, 1.6, -0.9, 5.3], "rev_series": [816.1, 1138.5, 1021.5, 989.4, 818.2, 775.2], "np_series": [19.8, 53.3, -8.6, -13.3, -46.6, -2.1], "roe_series": [7.2, 17.4, -2.8, -4.7, -18.3, -0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 766.7, "np_ttm": -2.0, "ocf_ttm": 69.3, "fcf_ttm": 53.7, "fcf_yield": 27.0, "ocf_yield": 34.9, "gm_median": 3.2, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": -0.49, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": -0.8, "roe_median": -2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.0, "fix_assets": 468.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.83, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 144.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.8, "debt_ratio": 55.1, "debt_mv": 72.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -8.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -2.2, "np_yoy": 6.5, "np_vol": 149.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 31.0, "fwd_pe2": 13.6, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 128.0, "peg": 0.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["钢铁产品", 31.0], ["钢材销售", 31.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.6, "ret_prev2_year": 13.6, "ret_ytd": -38.9, "ret_pivot": 39.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.0, "ret_60": -8.2, "ret_120": -39.0, "ret_250": -31.4, "mdd_250": -46.4, "vol_250": 37.6, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 93, "bondness": 28}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 3.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%,稳定度 -49%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 27.0%(经营现金流/市值 34.9%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 3.2%,稳定度 -49%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 38%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -8% / -39%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「普钢」22 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 3.5% / 固定资产占比 58% / 分红率 57%。", "马钢股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}