{"F": {"ts_code": "600807.SH", "name": "济高发展", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.69, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.7234, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 237966.7343, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.6, 33.1, 38.3, 23.0, 17.3, 16.7], "rev_series": [10.9, 12.8, 17.2, 7.2, 3.7, 3.5], "np_series": [-8.2, 0.1, 0.2, -1.0, -8.1, -2.1], "roe_series": [-92.5, 3.2, 4.6, -33.7, -551.1, -109.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.3, "np_ttm": -2.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 8.6, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": -12.9, "roe_median": -33.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.7, "fix_assets": 1.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.72, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 0.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 77.9, "debt_mv": 3.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -41.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -14.0, "np_yoy": -19.7, "np_vol": 370.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["体外诊断业务", 18.0], ["贸易业务及其他", 17.0], ["房地产及物业服务业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -12.0, "ret_prev2_year": -0.3, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": -1.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 4.3, "ret_120": -19.7, "ret_250": -19.0, "mdd_250": -41.2, "vol_250": 40.4, "pos_52w": 69.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 8, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 78%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 4% / -20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "济高发展:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点。"]}}