{"F": {"ts_code": "600805.SH", "name": "悦达投资", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "综合", "sw2": "综合Ⅱ", "sw3": "综合Ⅲ", "ind": "综合Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.54, "pe_ttm": 47.1219, "pb": 0.8989, "dv_ttm": 1.1013, "total_mv": 386306.103, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [8.7, 8.5, 6.6, 7.8, 7.9, 12.3], "rev_series": [30.3, 38.9, 30.7, 31.3, 30.3, 25.6], "np_series": [-12.7, -7.7, 0.9, 0.4, 0.3, 0.4], "roe_series": [-22.8, -16.9, 2.2, 0.9, 0.6, 0.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.7, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_yield": -6.2, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 7.9, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.75, "gm_chg_2022": -2.1, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.0, "fix_assets": 33.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.9, "capex_dep": 2.35, "interest_debt": 38.9, "debt_ebitda": 15.1, "debt_ratio": 50.2, "debt_mv": 100.6, "payout": 141.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -6.0, "np_cagr3": -26.8, "rev_yoy": 8.6, "np_yoy": 321.6, "np_vol": 59.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["制造业", 34.0], ["纺织", 29.0], ["机械装备", 11.0], ["服务业", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.9, "ret_prev2_year": -13.4, "ret_ytd": -16.1, "ret_pivot": 33.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.6, "ret_60": 4.4, "ret_120": -19.2, "ret_250": -22.0, "mdd_250": -32.0, "vol_250": 27.3, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 36, "hard": 53, "bondness": 77}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 33%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 15.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 33%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%,稳定度 75%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -6.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.9%,稳定度 75%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 33%,资本开支/折旧 2.35 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.1 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 27%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 4% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「综合Ⅱ」20 家中位:PE 46.7 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 15.5% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 35%。", "悦达投资:PE 比行业中位高 0.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 20.6个百分点。"]}}