{"F": {"ts_code": "600803.SH", "name": "新奥股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.26, "pe_ttm": 13.6683, "pb": 2.5423, "dv_ttm": 5.9155, "total_mv": 5961326.5026, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, 16.7, 15.2, 13.9, 13.9, 13.9], "rev_series": [881.0, 1159.2, 1540.4, 1437.5, 1358.4, 1314.6], "np_series": [21.1, 41.0, 58.4, 70.9, 44.9, 46.8], "roe_series": [24.1, 35.7, 36.1, 34.4, 19.1, 19.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1294.6, "np_ttm": 43.6, "ocf_ttm": 131.7, "fcf_ttm": 60.9, "fcf_yield": 10.2, "ocf_yield": 22.1, "gm_median": 13.9, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.4, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 34.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.5, "fix_assets": 691.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 2.54, "capex_dep": 1.97, "interest_debt": 312.7, "debt_ebitda": 2.0, "debt_ratio": 54.2, "debt_mv": 52.5, "payout": 70.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": -7.1, "rev_yoy": -3.0, "np_yoy": -13.3, "np_vol": 42.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 63.0, "earn_yield": 7.3, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 11.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.0, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 11.0, "peg": 1.01, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["天然气零售", 27.0], ["天然气批发", 12.0], ["泛能业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.5, "ret_prev2_year": 42.0, "ret_ytd": -2.7, "ret_pivot": 21.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -11.2, "ret_250": 9.1, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 31.7, "pos_52w": 83.4}, "S": {"duration": 29, "pricing": 44, "hard": 81, "bondness": 81}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 70%、股息率 5.9%、营收 3 年复合 -5.1%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.2%(经营现金流/市值 22.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 13.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 1.97 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.7 倍 粗算,约 63%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 12% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "新奥股份:PE 比行业中位低 8.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.9个百分点。"]}}