{"F": {"ts_code": "600802.SH", "name": "福建水泥", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.21, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.8523, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 238747.4164, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.0, 22.0, -0.9, -6.6, 1.6, 7.4], "rev_series": [29.6, 36.2, 25.9, 20.5, 17.4, 15.3], "np_series": [2.8, 4.0, -2.4, -3.2, -1.7, -1.3], "roe_series": [18.2, 22.2, -14.0, -23.7, -14.6, -12.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": -2.2, "ocf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_ttm": -3.9, "fcf_yield": -16.5, "ocf_yield": -15.1, "gm_median": 1.6, "gm_std": 9.7, "gm_stab": -5.08, "gm_chg_2022": -24.8, "npm_median": -12.1, "roe_median": -14.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 57.0, "fix_assets": 18.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.85, "capex_dep": 0.16, "interest_debt": 16.2, "debt_ebitda": 48.3, "debt_ratio": 77.0, "debt_mv": 67.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -16.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -21.5, "np_yoy": -434.9, "np_vol": 84.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["水泥", 95.0], ["熟料", 2.0], ["商品熟料", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.1, "ret_prev2_year": -26.8, "ret_ytd": -20.6, "ret_pivot": 85.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.9, "ret_60": 9.7, "ret_120": -14.6, "ret_250": -7.5, "mdd_250": -54.7, "vol_250": 47.4, "pos_52w": 61.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 91, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 57%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 1.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -24.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 48.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 57%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.6%,稳定度 -508%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.5%(经营现金流/市值 -15.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.6%,稳定度 -508%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -24.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 57%,资本开支/折旧 0.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 10% / -15%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "福建水泥:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.2个百分点。"]}}