{"F": {"ts_code": "600801.SH", "name": "华新建材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "水泥", "sw3": "水泥制造", "ind": "水泥", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19940103", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.8, "pe_ttm": 14.8901, "pb": 1.5527, "dv_ttm": 2.2151, "total_mv": 5155909.088, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.6, 34.1, 26.2, 26.7, 24.7, 30.2], "rev_series": [293.6, 324.6, 304.7, 337.6, 342.2, 353.5], "np_series": [56.3, 53.6, 27.0, 27.6, 24.2, 28.5], "roe_series": [25.1, 21.3, 10.0, 9.8, 8.2, 9.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 388.0, "np_ttm": 34.6, "ocf_ttm": 77.6, "fcf_ttm": 52.5, "fcf_yield": 10.2, "ocf_yield": 15.1, "gm_median": 26.7, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -14.4, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 9.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.8, "fix_assets": 349.0, "goodwill_ratio": 5.4, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 0.93, "interest_debt": 250.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 53.0, "debt_mv": 48.6, "payout": 39.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": 1.9, "rev_yoy": 21.5, "np_yoy": 55.2, "np_vol": 22.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 66.0, "earn_yield": 6.7, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 13.8, "fwd_pe2": 11.5, "fwd_g1": 8.0, "fwd_g2": 20.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["水泥销售", 22.0], ["水泥", 22.0], ["混凝土销售", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 119.4, "ret_prev2_year": 1.8, "ret_ytd": 1.9, "ret_pivot": 169.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.5, "ret_60": 33.6, "ret_120": 9.0, "ret_250": 60.6, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 43.5, "pos_52w": 95.6}, "S": {"duration": 31, "pricing": 48, "hard": 68, "bondness": 49}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 55%,PE TTM 14.9 倍 但前瞻 PE 13.8 倍,PEG 0.69。", "自由现金流 52.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 20%(21 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.2%(经营现金流/市值 15.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.93 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.9 倍 粗算,约 66%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 61%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 96%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 34% / 9%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「水泥」21 家中位:PE 19.9 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 17.5% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "华新建材:PE 比行业中位低 5.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.0个百分点。"]}}