{"F": {"ts_code": "600800.SH", "name": "渤海化学", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "其他石化", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19931206", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.42, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.9692, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 379635.4584, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.6, 11.1, 6.1, -10.3, -7.9, -13.1], "rev_series": [27.3, 42.5, 60.5, 32.3, 47.8, 33.3], "np_series": [1.9, 1.9, -0.4, -5.2, -6.3, -6.5], "roe_series": [13.0, 6.6, -1.3, -19.7, -30.4, -44.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.9, "np_ttm": -5.8, "ocf_ttm": -4.7, "fcf_ttm": -12.5, "fcf_yield": -33.0, "ocf_yield": -12.5, "gm_median": -7.9, "gm_std": 9.6, "gm_stab": 2.22, "gm_chg_2022": -14.4, "npm_median": -13.2, "roe_median": -19.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.1, "fix_assets": 29.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.97, "capex_dep": 3.43, "interest_debt": 23.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 74.0, "debt_mv": 60.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -18.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -27.4, "np_yoy": 18.2, "np_vol": 492.7, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["自制丙烯,丙烯酸及酯", 28.0], ["化工品贸易", 20.0], ["磁卡销售", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 13.8, "ret_prev2_year": -17.6, "ret_ytd": -1.2, "ret_pivot": 63.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": -6.0, "ret_120": -35.0, "ret_250": -24.8, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 53.8, "pos_52w": 65.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 93, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 58%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -7.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.4 个百分点;资产负债率 74%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -7.9%,稳定度 222%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -33.0%(经营现金流/市值 -12.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -7.9%,稳定度 222%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -14.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 3.43 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -6% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "渤海化学:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 18.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.0个百分点。"]}}