{"F": {"ts_code": "600798.SH", "name": "宁波海运", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航运港口", "sw3": "航运", "ind": "航运港口", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970423", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.37, "pe_ttm": 71.0635, "pb": 1.0367, "dv_ttm": 0.5935, "total_mv": 406602.0254, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 25.7, 17.2, 17.7, 7.7, 7.1], "rev_series": [22.8, 23.4, 20.7, 22.7, 24.3, 27.0], "np_series": [1.7, 3.1, 1.1, 1.1, 0.2, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.6, 8.4, 2.9, 2.8, 0.6, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.7, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_yield": 13.2, "ocf_yield": 14.0, "gm_median": 17.2, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.6, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 2.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.2, "fix_assets": 21.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 0.15, "interest_debt": 7.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 24.3, "debt_mv": 18.5, "payout": 88.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.2, "np_cagr3": -37.8, "rev_yoy": 66.0, "np_yoy": 76.1, "np_vol": 61.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["航运业务", 42.0], ["高速公路业务", 5.0], ["公路运营", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 17.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.7, "ret_ytd": -3.7, "ret_pivot": 32.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.0, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": -12.7, "ret_250": -16.2, "mdd_250": -34.6, "vol_250": 39.6, "pos_52w": 72.9}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 34, "hard": 52, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 71.1 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 60%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.2%(经营现金流/市值 14.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.2%,稳定度 60%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.15 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.1 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 2% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航运港口」35 家中位:PE 17.1 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 27.0% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 41%。", "宁波海运:PE 比行业中位高 54.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.9个百分点。"]}}