{"F": {"ts_code": "600794.SH", "name": "保税科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "仓储物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970306", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.27, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.5693, "dv_ttm": 0.6116, "total_mv": 392449.7694, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [20.0, 12.1, 25.0, 31.1, 45.8, 35.3], "rev_series": [20.6, 18.7, 13.4, 15.0, 9.0, 6.1], "np_series": [2.1, 1.0, 1.6, 2.5, 2.1, -0.9], "roe_series": [10.3, 4.6, 7.1, 10.3, 8.2, -3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.6, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 3.7, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 8.5, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 31.1, "gm_std": 11.2, "gm_stab": 0.64, "gm_chg_2022": 5.0, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.3, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.57, "capex_dep": 0.62, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 8.3, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 40.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -23.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -11.8, "np_yoy": -1.7, "np_vol": 75.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 25.2, "fwd_pe2": 21.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["供应链管理服务", 37.0], ["供应链服务", 37.0], ["液化仓储", 24.0], ["智慧物流", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.4, "ret_prev2_year": -8.3, "ret_ytd": -15.7, "ret_pivot": 12.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.5, "ret_60": 6.9, "ret_120": -17.6, "ret_250": -30.6, "mdd_250": -39.5, "vol_250": 26.0, "pos_52w": 69.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 28, "bondness": 39}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 8%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 31.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.5%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.1%,稳定度 64%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.62 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 26%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 7% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "保税科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}