{"F": {"ts_code": "600789.SH", "name": "鲁抗医药", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.58, "pe_ttm": 55.1643, "pb": 1.5081, "dv_ttm": 0.6596, "total_mv": 792253.8684, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.3, 23.4, 22.2, 24.7, 24.0, 22.1], "rev_series": [42.1, 48.9, 56.2, 61.5, 62.3, 57.7], "np_series": [2.3, 0.8, 1.4, 2.5, 3.9, 1.1], "roe_series": [7.3, 2.6, 4.2, 7.1, 10.5, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.5, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 7.4, "fcf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_yield": 4.8, "ocf_yield": 9.4, "gm_median": 23.4, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.1, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.1, "fix_assets": 38.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.51, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 23.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.3, "debt_ratio": 45.2, "debt_mv": 29.3, "payout": 32.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.9, "np_cagr3": -6.6, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": 29.3, "np_vol": 65.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.2, "ret_prev2_year": 36.7, "ret_ytd": -15.7, "ret_pivot": 13.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": 9.1, "ret_120": -14.0, "ret_250": -26.7, "mdd_250": -37.1, "vol_250": 30.5, "pos_52w": 71.1}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 52, "hard": 63, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 55.2 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.8%(经营现金流/市值 9.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 55.2 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 9% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "鲁抗医药:PE 比行业中位高 17.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 29.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.3个百分点。"]}}