{"F": {"ts_code": "600787.SH", "name": "中储股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "仓储物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970121", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.59, "pe_ttm": 31.327, "pb": 0.7191, "dv_ttm": 2.4619, "total_mv": 996066.5364, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.0, 2.2, 2.2, 2.9, 2.9, 3.0], "rev_series": [488.2, 752.3, 767.7, 672.7, 631.4, 676.9], "np_series": [5.7, 9.2, 6.4, 7.9, 4.0, 5.5], "roe_series": [4.9, 7.5, 5.0, 5.9, 3.0, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 752.9, "np_ttm": 3.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -2.0, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 2.9, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -0.8, "npm_median": 0.9, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.7, "fix_assets": 40.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 0.72, "capex_dep": 1.45, "interest_debt": 18.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 38.7, "debt_mv": 19.0, "payout": 37.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.1, "np_cagr3": -5.2, "rev_yoy": 25.8, "np_yoy": -54.8, "np_vol": 38.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["物流业务", 38.0], ["商品流通业务", 8.0], ["商品流通", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.1, "ret_prev2_year": 29.4, "ret_ytd": -16.7, "ret_pivot": 8.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.0, "ret_60": 4.6, "ret_120": -20.7, "ret_250": -24.2, "mdd_250": -33.6, "vol_250": 20.5, "pos_52w": 73.5}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 39, "hard": 27, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.3 倍、股息率 2.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%、固定资产占比 17%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 17%,毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 2.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 1.45 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.3 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 20%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 5% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "中储股份:PE 比行业中位高 9.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点。"]}}