{"F": {"ts_code": "600785.SH", "name": "新华百货", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "商贸零售", "sw2": "一般零售", "sw3": "多业态零售", "ind": "一般零售", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19970108", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.4, "pe_ttm": 63.0984, "pb": 1.5723, "dv_ttm": 1.2531, "total_mv": 360107.532, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.0, 27.1, 25.3, 26.8, 26.8, 25.0], "rev_series": [56.9, 57.1, 58.8, 60.7, 61.2, 59.7], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.9, 1.4, 1.3, 0.7], "roe_series": [1.8, 2.4, 4.7, 6.5, 6.1, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.8, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 8.7, "fcf_ttm": 6.6, "fcf_yield": 18.4, "ocf_yield": 24.2, "gm_median": 26.8, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": 0.3, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.4, "fix_assets": 22.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.57, "capex_dep": 1.83, "interest_debt": 30.4, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 74.3, "debt_mv": 84.6, "payout": 41.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.5, "np_cagr3": -7.3, "rev_yoy": 0.3, "np_yoy": -20.3, "np_vol": 42.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["超市业态", 34.0], ["超市商品零售", 30.0], ["电器业态", 10.0], ["电器零售", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.6, "ret_prev2_year": -10.8, "ret_ytd": 18.7, "ret_pivot": 83.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 30.9, "ret_60": 7.5, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": 18.4, "mdd_250": -57.8, "vol_250": 58.2, "pos_52w": 62.5}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 55, "hard": 47, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 63.1 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 18.4%(经营现金流/市值 24.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 1.83 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.1 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 31% / 8% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「一般零售」60 家中位:PE 60.7 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 34.2% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 51%。", "新华百货:PE 比行业中位高 2.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.0个百分点。"]}}