{"F": {"ts_code": "600784.SH", "name": "鲁银投资", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学原料", "sw3": "无机盐", "ind": "化学原料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.58, "pe_ttm": 34.5838, "pb": 1.5193, "dv_ttm": 0.6596, "total_mv": 512144.4434, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.3, 19.7, 20.7, 24.3, 25.8, 23.7], "rev_series": [25.4, 30.2, 37.9, 33.5, 33.8, 33.5], "np_series": [1.7, 2.3, 3.2, 2.6, 3.0, 1.7], "roe_series": [10.7, 12.9, 14.4, 9.5, 10.0, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.0, "np_ttm": 1.5, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 23.7, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 5.4, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 10.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.0, "fix_assets": 23.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.52, "capex_dep": 1.05, "interest_debt": 16.5, "debt_ebitda": 3.9, "debt_ratio": 40.1, "debt_mv": 32.2, "payout": 15.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -4.0, "np_cagr3": -19.5, "rev_yoy": 3.0, "np_yoy": -16.6, "np_vol": 32.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钢铁粉末", 47.0], ["食用盐", 18.0], ["工业盐", 17.0], ["其他收入", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.0, "ret_prev2_year": -3.3, "ret_ytd": 9.4, "ret_pivot": 59.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": 11.0, "ret_120": 2.8, "ret_250": 13.6, "mdd_250": -26.4, "vol_250": 37.4, "pos_52w": 87.6}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 55, "hard": 61, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.6 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%、固定资产占比 38%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 38%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 5.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 38%,资本开支/折旧 1.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.6 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / 11% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学原料」59 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.8% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 40%。", "鲁银投资:PE 比行业中位低 1.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}