{"F": {"ts_code": "600783.SH", "name": "鲁信创投", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "磨具磨料", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "19961225", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.55, "pe_ttm": 94.3888, "pb": 2.5433, "dv_ttm": 0.418, "total_mv": 1157478.7115, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 30.4, 34.9, 40.5, 38.9, 42.2], "rev_series": [1.2, 1.4, 1.2, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9], "np_series": [3.3, 5.1, 4.8, 2.5, 1.6, 1.4], "roe_series": [9.1, 12.8, 11.0, 5.6, 3.5, 3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 0.9, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 38.9, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 6.1, "npm_median": 317.5, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.54, "capex_dep": 0.14, "interest_debt": 39.5, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 49.9, "debt_mv": 34.1, "payout": 32.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.2, "np_cagr3": -33.1, "rev_yoy": 15.1, "np_yoy": -10.0, "np_vol": 34.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["磨料磨具产品", 21.0], ["磨具", 21.0], ["管理费收入", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.8, "ret_prev2_year": 10.6, "ret_ytd": -37.0, "ret_pivot": 55.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.7, "ret_60": -28.9, "ret_120": -27.7, "ret_250": 17.5, "mdd_250": -63.8, "vol_250": 69.0, "pos_52w": 39.5}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 62, "hard": 1, "bondness": 37}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 94.4 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 0%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 38.9%),硬资产占比 0%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 38.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 0%,资本开支/折旧 0.14 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 94.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 40%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -29% / -28%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "鲁信创投:PE 比行业中位高 43.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 20.4个百分点。"]}}